Chasing hot loads is a trap right now

What are the main factors contributing to a tightening trucking market right now? 

The biggest factor is that capacity left the market faster than demand recovered. After a long freight downturn, many smaller carriers either exited or downsized, so the market has far less excess capacity than it did a few years ago. At the same time, operating costs remain elevated, especially fuel, insurance and equipment costs. Weather disruptions provided additional strain on the market. 

Another major factor right now is enforcement activity. Increased focus on English Language Proficiency requirements and non-domicile CDL enforcement is reducing available capacity in certain markets, particularly cross-border and southern regions. That’s tightening the market faster than many expected.

The combination of reduced capacity, rising costs and regulatory pressure is creating a much more sensitive freight environment where even moderate disruptions are pushing rates and tender rejections higher.

You recently released your Q1 2026 Trendline. What surprised you most about the data?

What surprised me most was how quickly the market reacted without a massive freight boom behind it. We’ve seen rates tighten before, but usually it comes with overwhelming demand. This feels different. Even relatively normal disruptions— winter weather, seasonal produce shifts—created meaningful movement across the market because there’s less available capacity to absorb it. 

We also saw flatbed, reefer and dry van all tighten together much faster than expected. Flatbed led early, but the rest of the market followed pretty quickly.

The biggest takeaway for me is that this feels more structural than seasonal. The market floor has reset higher because the underlying supply base is smaller, more selective and carrying significantly higher operating costs than it did a few years ago. The market is reacting like capacity is genuinely constrained, not temporarily tight.

How should small motor carriers handle their business right now during the market upswing?

I don’t want to tell carriers how to handle their business, but this would be my advice: Stay disciplined. When rates start moving up, it’s easy to chase every hot load or overextend too quickly. The carriers that usually win long-term are the ones that stay consistent operationally and manage their costs well.

Fuel is volatile, so understanding your true operating costs matters more than ever. Just because a rate looks good doesn’t always mean it’s profitable once repositioning and fuel are factored in.

I’d also say relationships matter a lot right now. Brokers and shippers remember the carriers that communicate well and execute consistently during tighter markets. That reliability becomes extremely valuable when capacity gets constrained. The carriers that use this market to strengthen long-term relationships, not just short-term margins, will be in the best position when the cycle shifts again.

Is it smarter to play the spot market, contract or both at the moment?

Right now, I think balance is the smartest approach. There’s definitely opportunity in the spot market, especially in flatbed, reefer and produce-heavy regions where rates are moving quickly. But spot-only strategies can still create a lot of volatility week to week. 

Contract freight provides stability and helps keep networks balanced, especially when operating costs are still unpredictable. The issue is that some contract pricing hasn’t fully caught up to real-time market conditions yet.

The carriers in the best position are usually the ones using contract freight as a foundation while staying flexible enough to take advantage of strong spot opportunities when they make sense.

Overall, my advice here is similar to the previous question: Stay disciplined. Execute at a high level, communicate well and manage costs. A strong headhaul rate can disappear quickly if repositioning costs or reload opportunities aren't factored in.

 What's one big thing that you think will separate the small business carriers who thrive in today's market from the ones who don't?

Execution. Service matters. The carriers focused only on short-term rate spikes may win temporarily, but the ones that communicate well, stay compliant, understand their costs and consistently do what they say they’re going to do are the ones that will stand out.

(Image courtesy Jerad Dennis)