Trucking gives clues about the U.S. economy

The word of the quarter seems to be uncertainty, and trucking leaders are sharing how that's affecting their fleets and shipper customers. Plus, we talk to a 3PL to understand how to manage your business through a down market. 

And here is some good news: there's a 90 day pause on tariffs with China. But, now what? And Aurora is getting even more ambitious about its driverless plans. Let's get into it.

What sustains success through market cycles

Freight rates may remain low for a while, but successful carriers know that business isn't made only by chasing dollars. We spoke to Jeff Hickson, manager of capacity at 3PL RJ Logistics, for his predictions on the market and how to navigate through a down cycle. -Shefali Kapadia

Since the initial announcement of tariffs, how have trucking carriers and freight movements been affected?

The initial uncertainty around tariffs led to a surge in cross-border shipments as companies rushed to move goods, driving up rates due to limited capacity. Once tariffs took effect, volumes dropped sharply, forcing carriers to reposition equipment and seek alternative freight. Similar declines are expected at ports like Long Beach, with projected volume drops of 20–30% in 2025. Businesses built around drayage, port and cross-border freight now face closures. As capacity shrinks and infrastructure is lost, future volume rebounds will likely trigger rate spikes due to insufficient truck supply.

What are some of the ways you're working with carrier partners to navigate the current trade environment?

Our business model is built on long-term partnerships with both customers and carriers. We prioritize funneling volume to strategic carrier partners, especially in the service-focused customer verticals we support. Strong carrier relationships are essential to delivering the high service levels our customers expect. Because customers see the value in our service and understand it depends on quality carriers, they’re motivated to help keep those carriers moving. By aligning customer and carrier interests, we’re investing in our ability to provide reliable service in the future.

What do you expect will happen to the freight market this year? How might volumes and/or rates change?

We expect shipment volumes to decline year-over-year through 2025. A brief pre-tariff surge was followed by ongoing softness. Since 2023, over 90,000 trucking companies and 5,000 brokers have left the industry, yet capacity still exceeds demand. This imbalance will likely persist, driving more exits and keeping rates low as companies compete for limited freight. When volumes rebound, and they will, rates are expected to spike as carriers and brokers try to recover losses, creating renewed pressure on shippers and manufacturers and extending the market volatility that began during the COVID era.

What's your No. 1 piece of advice to trucking carriers, especially small businesses, to keep operations flowing and cost-effective in today's landscape?

Don’t just chase dollars, build partnerships where both sides deliver value and rely on each other for long-term success. Large carriers may have sales teams to secure freight, but smaller carriers often can’t, as they focus on operations. These carriers should align with brokers who value relationships, offer consistent volume in key lanes and prioritize stability. In soft markets, we pay trusted partners more because we know they won’t abandon us when capacity tightens. Strong partnerships, not short-term gains, are what sustain success through market cycles.

Motor carriers unite in 'careful watchfulness'

The health of trucking can often give clues to the health of the broader economy. And as large public trucking firms report their quarterly earnings, there's an overarching tone, according to Darrion Weems, CEO of J&S Drayage: cautiousness. 

"America’s freight carriers, from giants to independent drivers, are united in careful watchfulness," Weems wrote.

Between changing port volumes, tariff uncertainty and the capacity conundrum, trucking leaders of fleets small and large are unsure what lies ahead. 

Why this matters: A lack of certainty makes it difficult to plan, but the businesses that focus on fleet management, financial planning and staying nimble are most likely to emerge resilient from tough economic times, per Weems. 

Get more details on LinkedIn. 

NO ZONE: ATA teaches high schoolers how to safely drive near trucks

FRAUD SCHEME: Trucking owner accused of defrauding Amazon of $3M 

ROAD RAGE: Man shoots at trucker, calls 911 on self

IN PHOTOS: Make-A-Wish truck convoy celebrates Mother's Day

"We've dropped the ball when it comes to testing and training and licensing."  - Todd Spencer, OOIDA

Enforcement of English proficiency rules is back on the table, and many trucking organizations are in favor, noting that it helps keep roads safer. Spencer says not knowing English could, unfortunately, create a life-or-death situation if a trucker finds themselves in an emergency. Watch his interview here.

U.S., China agree to pause tariffs for 90 days

The United States and China have made a deal to halt higher tariffs on each other. The tariffs have been in place since last month, with imports to the U.S. from China taxed at 145% and imports to China from the U.S. facing a tariff of 125%. For 90 days, those rates will be slashed to 30% and 10%, respectively. 

Why this matters: Escalating tariffs have made businesses skittish about higher prices and the effects on consumers and the broader economy. With slowing imports, there's a ripple effect to trucking companies, leading to less freight to haul. While a 90-day pause may provide some temporary relief and resumption in imports, it still leaves a cloud of uncertainty for all players in the supply chain. (NBC News)

Class 8 truck orders take a nosedive amid uncertainty

Fleets are dramatically slowing down their truck orders. Class 8 orders fell 52% year-over-year in April and nearly 54% compared to March, according to data from ACT Research. It's the lowest order tally since the beginning of the pandemic. 

Why this matters: The reason for the big dip? "Uncertainty surrounding the impact of U.S. economic policy," per ACT. Many fleet owners will be inclined to hold off on large purchases and capital expenditures until they have greater clarity on what shippers are doing and what volumes will look like. (Transport Topics)

Labor shortages stifle logistics industry growth

What's keeping executives up at night? Labor shortages, according to a new survey by Tech.co, which found workforce shortages to be the biggest issue affecting freight firms, despite reports of impending layoffs coming to the trucking industry. After that, diesel prices and then "major unforeseen disruptions."

Why this matters: Even though executives say shortages in the workforce impact their business, only 15% of those surveyed said retention and recruitment are priorities this quarter. Without the manpower to run businesses, firms will struggle to grow. (Tech.co)

Aurora plans night, rain driving for driverless trucks

Autonomous vehicle company Aurora will expand its driverless operations to include night driving, along with inclement weather like heavy wind or rain. Plus, it plans to extend routes to Phoenix and El Paso. 

Why this matters: Aurora is on a roll with no signs of slowing down. Dark or rainy conditions have typically presented challenges for AVs due to the sensors and cameras these driverless trucks require to operate, so if Aurora can overcome this hurdle, it might pave the way for even more autonomous trucks on the road. (TechCrunch)

Thanks for reading today's edition! You can reach the newsletter team at editor@theinsidelane.co. We enjoy hearing from you.

Interested in advertising? Email us at newslettersales@mvfglobal.com

The Inside Lane is curated and written by Shefali Kapadia and edited by Bianca Prieto.